Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 38.5 pp to 95.5% on Polymarket amid whale buying
Whale net flow of $8K into YES accompanied a sharp 24-hour price rise in the Iran-Gulf State military action market.
Jul 17
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 33pp as Whales Back YES with $6K Net Flow
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour jump from 57.0% to 90.0% in the odds of Iran taking military action on July 17.
Jul 17
Breaking
US x Iran Ceasefire Odds Drop 18pp Amid Divergent Whale Activity
YES contract for an effective ceasefire by August 14 fell from 53.0% to 35.0% as whale flow diverged from price action.
Jul 17
Breaking
‘Will Trump meet Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?’ YES price drops 19.5 pp amid whale selling
Polymarket’s odds for a Trump-Netanyahu meeting fell sharply from 32.5% to 13.0% as whale flow diverged, signaling growing skepticism.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 31.5pp to 85% on Polymarket amid whale buying
Whales pushed $5K net into YES as market price jumped from 53.5% to 85% in 24 hours.
Jul 17
Breaking
Odds that Houthis will target shipping by July 31, 2026 jump 24.5 pp in 24h
Whale bets and price shifts aligned as YES contract surged from 37.5% to 62.0% on Polymarket.
Jul 17
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Odds Surge 32.5 Points to 70% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked the sharp 24-hour jump, reinforcing rising market confidence in a successful attack by July 31, 2026.
Jul 17
Breaking
Odds Trump meets Netanyahu by July 20, 2026 drop 42.6pp to 1.8% on Polymarket
Market prices sharply shifted against the meeting while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting sentiment.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 30.5 pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from market prices as the chance of Iran military action on July 16 dropped sharply.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17? YES price jumps 27.5 pp to 77.5%
Whales supported the rally with $4K net inflow as the market’s odds shifted sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 17