Breaking
“Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” YES price drops 21.5 pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as market odds for ceasefire fell sharply to 43.0% on $32K volume
Jul 18
#%sconflict
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 3 stories.
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?” YES price jumps 21.5 pp to 77.0%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 21.5 pp rise in the probability of Russian capture within 24 hours, pushing the market price to 77.0%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Odds Jump 25.5 Points to 52% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp price rise with $28K net buys, pushing the market over the 50% threshold.
Jul 12