Singapore’s temperature forecast sources diverge the most among 52 active weather markets today, with a 1.4°C spread between a low of 29.6°C and a high of 31°C. This gap marks the widest range in the weather vertical, where $223K changed hands across all city markets in the past 24 hours.
Despite Singapore’s $27K volume being less than half Shanghai’s $62K and Hong Kong’s $34K in the same period, the city’s forecast tension is more pronounced. Yesterday’s actual high in Singapore was 31°C, matching the upper bound of today’s forecast range, underscoring the uncertainty about whether temperatures will hold or dip.
Shanghai, with the largest 24-hour trading volume at $62K, sees a narrower forecast spread of 1.1°C between 29.9°C and 31°C. Hong Kong’s forecast ranges from 30.7°C to 32°C, a 1.3°C difference, accompanied by $34K in trading volume.
The weather prediction market rewards precision as each city settles on a definitive temperature daily. The current data highlights Singapore as a hotspot of forecast disagreement despite its lower trading volume, signaling a market grappling with divergent expectations for the city’s temperature. This dynamic contrasts with Shanghai’s deeper market activity but tighter forecast consensus.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai | $62K | 29.9°C–31°C | 1.1°C |
| Hong Kong | $34K | 30.7°C–32°C | 1.3°C |
| Singapore | $27K | 29.6°C–31°C | 1.4°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.