Amsterdam registers the largest forecast spread among 52 active city markets on Polymarket, with sources predicting today’s high temperature anywhere from 23°C to 26.6°C, a 3.6°C gap. This divergence fuels $39K in trading volume for the city alone, making it the busiest market in the weather vertical over the past 24 hours.
Yesterday’s actual high in Amsterdam was 24°C, providing a recent anchor for traders amid the current uncertainty. The broader weather prediction market tallied $157K in total volume over the same period, reflecting active engagement across multiple regions.
Other cities with notable forecast spreads include Helsinki, where the predicted high ranges 22.2°C to 24.4°C (a 2.2°C spread) and $30K in 24-hour volume, and Wellington, with a 3.1°C forecast gap between 9.9°C and 13°C alongside $25K in trading volume. These cities contribute to a geographically diverse set of markets where forecast disagreement creates liquidity and trading opportunities.
Amsterdam’s forecast spread stands out as the widest gap, underscoring how differing weather models and predictions drive market interest. The volume concentration here, nearly a quarter of the vertical’s 24-hour total, highlights how forecast uncertainty translates into real trading activity. This dynamic illustrates the essential role of forecast divergence in making weather markets viable and liquid.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amsterdam | $39K | 23°C–26.6°C | 3.6°C |
| Helsinki | $30K | 22.2°C–24.4°C | 2.2°C |
| Wellington | $25K | 9.9°C–13°C | 3.1°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-08-01. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.