The YES contract on whether Pamela Evette will replace Graham as South Carolina Senator dropped sharply by 73.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 74.6% to 1.2% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing marks a swift shift in market sentiment against the outcome.
Despite the steep decline in the YES price, whale activity diverged from this trend, indicating net buying rather than selling at the top end. This divergence between large-stake flow and the price move signals a disconnect between retail and institutional participants or potential positioning ahead of new information.
Polymarket recorded $22K in volume over the same period, reflecting moderate trading interest accompanying the price move. The divergence flag highlights that while the market’s collective odds collapsed, whales maintained or increased their exposure to the YES side, suggesting confidence inconsistent with the broader market movement.
The stark fall from 74.6% to 1.2% in odds underscores significant revaluation, but the whale flow divergence leaves the contract’s outlook complex and contested.
| Market | Will Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2896160 |
| 24h price change | +73.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 74.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $22K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.