The Polymarket contract on whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19 saw its YES price climb sharply by 27.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from an estimated 31.0% to 58.0%. This significant repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Alongside the price increase, whale activity aligned with the tape, indicating that large traders supported the upward move by netting funds into YES positions. This concurrence between price action and whale flow adds conviction to the market’s reassessment of the likelihood of an extension.
Trading volume over the past 24 hours reached $17K, underscoring active participation and liquidity in this contract. The market’s rapid adjustment and whale involvement suggest new information or reevaluation by informed participants is driving confidence that Anthropic will continue offering Claude Fable 5’s paid plan beyond the current term.
This combined price and flow pattern signals a stronger consensus forming around the extension outcome, reflecting shifting probabilities as the July 19 deadline approaches.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2898504 |
| 24h price change | +27.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 58.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $17K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.