US halt on Iran offensive odds plunge 45pp to 4.5% amid whale divergence
Polymarket’s ‘US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?’ market saw a sharp drop in YES price, while whale flow moved opposite the price trend.
Sharp 24-hour price moves on Polymarket’s Breaking feed, with whale-flow context from Polydata.
Polymarket’s ‘US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?’ market saw a sharp drop in YES price, while whale flow moved opposite the price trend.
Whale activity and a sharp price jump pushed confidence in Mbappe as 2026 World Cup top scorer to new heights within 24 hours.
Polymarket’s “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” contract fell from 61.5% to 32.5% even as whales added to YES positions, signaling conflicting market signals.
Whales poured $164K into YES contracts as Polymarket’s odds surged from 34.5% to certainty in 24 hours.
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, signaling strong market confidence in a French top scorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Whales supported the sharp rise with $154K net buys, driving the market to full certainty in 24 hours.
Whale buying and price movement aligned as Mbappe’s market share more than doubled in 24 hours.
Whales contributed $149K net buying as the market for England finishing 3rd in the 2026 World Cup surged from 35.5% to certainty within 24 hours.
Whale flow diverged from price as Polymarket’s “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” market sharply repriced lower on July 19.
Whales aligned with the sharp price move, adding $49K net into YES contracts as the market fully repriced England’s World Cup finish.