The probability that Kylian Mbappe will be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup jumped 52.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 41.5% to 93.5% on Polymarket.
This dramatic repricing coincided with significant whale activity, which reinforced the shift. Whales contributed a net inflow of $538K into YES contracts, with $987K in purchases against $449K in sales over the same period. This flow direction aligned closely with the price movement, indicating coordinated confidence among large traders.
Overall Polymarket volume for the market reached $1.13M in the past 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $6.38M. The market has attracted participation from 9,758 unique traders, including 462 distinct whales active in the last day.
The convergence of large whale bets and rapid price gains signals a strong consensus shift toward Mbappe being the top goalscorer. The sustained whale buying alongside the price surge suggests that major players are backing this outcome with conviction, solidifying the market’s current view.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2069638 |
| 24h price change | +52.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 93.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $538K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $987K / $449K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 462 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $1.13M |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 9,758 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.