Polymarket’s contract on whether Kylian Mbappe will be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup saw its YES price leap 52.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from an estimated 41.5% to 93.5% as of July 19. This dramatic repricing reflects a surge in market conviction around Mbappe’s scoring prospects.
The price increase was supported by significant whale activity, with net flow into YES contracts totaling $533K over the same period. Whales bought $987K worth of YES contracts while selling $453K, indicating a strong directional commitment that aligned with the price move. The market saw participation from 476 unique whales, contributing to a total 24-hour volume of $1.13M on Polymarket.
Since inception, the contract has amassed $6.39M in lifetime volume with 9,770 unique traders engaging, highlighting sustained interest in this high-profile event. The alignment of whale flow with the sharp price increase suggests that large investors are reinforcing the market’s growing confidence in Mbappe’s chances.
This combined price and flow dynamic signals a strong consensus emerging among traders and whales alike, consolidating Mbappe’s position as the favored candidate to top the goal-scoring charts in the upcoming World Cup.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2069638 |
| 24h price change | +52.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 93.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $533K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $987K / $453K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 476 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $1.13M |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 9,770 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.