Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 70.5 points as whale flow diverges
YES price on Iran military action drops from 88.5% to 18.0% despite whale activity opposing the move
Jul 16
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Daily
Polymarket Sees $63.83M Volume and 64,918 Active Wallets in 24 Hours
Daily trading volume surpassed the prior five-day average by 6.9%, driven by high activity in World Cup 2026 markets.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price drops 43pp to 10% amid whale buying divergence
Whales pumped $7K into YES contracts even as the market slashed odds from 53% to 10%, signaling conflicting signals in the UK Home Secretary market.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU odds drop 26.5 points despite $161K whale bets
Whale buying contrasts sharp 26.5 pp decline in odds for Iran withdrawing from MOU by July 31 on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
Alibaba AI model’s chance slumps 35pp to 48% despite $3K whale buy-in
Polymarket’s price drop on Alibaba’s AI dominance contrasts with whale flows, signaling diverging trader views.
Jul 15
Breaking
South America’s 2026 World Cup Odds Jump 23 Percentage Points on Polymarket
Whales added $44K net to YES as the contract’s probability rose from 19.5% to 42.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
YES price on no UK Home Secretary in 2026 drops 46pp despite $7K whale buying
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 46 percentage point decline in the market’s YES price to 7%, signaling conflicting signals on the UK Home Secretary question.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Home Secretary Market Sees 42.5pp Drop in YES Price Despite $7K Whale Buy
Whale buying diverges from a sharp 42.5 percentage point fall in the market’s YES price for no next UK Home Secretary in 2026.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 64.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” market saw a sharp 24-hour drop in YES price despite whale bets opposing the move.
Jul 15
Weather
Paris weather forecast shows widest 3°C spread with $34K traded in 24h
Wellington tops volume at $89K amid 52 active city markets as forecast disagreements highlight trading interest.
Jul 15