Paris leads weather markets in forecast disagreement today with a 3°C range between 31.5°C and 34.5°C for the high, drawing $34K in 24-hour trading volume. This spread is the widest among 52 active city markets Polymarket tracks, signaling notable uncertainty among forecast sources. Yesterday’s actual high in Paris was 34°C, aligning near the upper end of today’s forecast range and providing a recent benchmark for traders.
Wellington remains the most actively traded city with $89K in volume over the past 24 hours, despite a tighter forecast spread of 2.1°C ranging from 13.9°C to 16°C. Wellington’s lifetime trading depth in weather markets stands at $161.64M, reflecting sustained interest in its local forecasts.
Seoul contributes to geographic breadth with $25K traded in the last 24 hours and a forecast high spread of 1.5°C between 25.5°C and 27°C. Its all-time weather market volume totals $513.89M, underscoring the city’s established market depth.
The variation in forecast ranges across cities represents the differing levels of consensus among weather models, which directly influence market activity. Paris’s 3°C gap provides traders with a wider range of potential outcomes to price, while Wellington’s larger volume suggests strong engagement despite a narrower forecast spread. This dynamic illustrates how forecast disagreement correlates with market interest and liquidity in weather prediction markets.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | $89K | 13.9°C–16°C | 2.1°C |
| Paris | $34K | 31.5°C–34.5°C | 3°C |
| Seoul | $25K | 25.5°C–27°C | 1.5°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.