Breaking
Apple as Largest Company Odds Jump 17.9pp on Whale Buying
A sharp rise in Apple’s market cap probability on Polymarket was backed by $7K in whale net inflows, signaling strong conviction in the contract.
Jul 17
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds drop 37.9pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's 'Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?' market sees a sharp price drop despite $13K whale net buys, signaling conflicting signals from big traders and market pricing.
Jul 17
Breaking
Bitcoin $67,500 July Market Sees 20-Point Drop to 28.5% Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s Bitcoin price target contract fell sharply despite whale activity moving against the price shift, signaling uncertainty in large bets.
Jul 17
Breaking
YES contract jumps 16.5 points to 57% on Claude Opus release by July 22, 2026
Whale activity aligned with price surge as Polymarket trades $20K on the model release question.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 25.5 points to 80.5% with whale buying
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour increase in the probability of Iran taking military action against a Gulf State on July 17.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 29pp despite $11K whale buy flow
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” market sees a sharp 29.0 percentage point fall in YES price amid whale buying that diverges from the price move.
Jul 17
Breaking
Trump Speech Duration Market Surges 88.9pp to 100% on Aligned Whale Activity
Polymarket's contract on Trump’s speech length jumps from 11.0% to certainty as whale bets and price move in sync.
Jul 17
Breaking
Odds Trump will accuse Venezuela of election interference plunge 51.3 pp in 24h
Whale buying diverged from a sharp drop in market odds, signaling mixed signals on Trump’s accusation timing.
Jul 17
Breaking
“Will Trump accuse Venezuela of election interference by July 16?” YES price plunges 45.5pp amid whale-buying divergence
The contract’s YES price dropped from 46.5% to 1.1% in 24 hours even as whales increased their net buying by $5K, signaling a split between price action and whale flow.
Jul 17
Breaking
Trump Speech Length Odds Collapse 44pp to 0.05% on Divergent Whale Flow
Despite a sharp 44.0 percentage-point drop in YES price, whale activity did not support the sell-off in Trump speech duration market.
Jul 17