Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 22pp to 82.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price surge as market sharply repriced likelihood of extension by July 19.
Jul 17
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Odds for Moonshot as Top Chinese AI Model Jump 26.2pp to 46.9% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour jump in Yes price on the question of Moonshot's AI dominance by July 2026.
Jul 17
Breaking
NVIDIA second-largest market cap bet jumps 35.5pp to 42.5% with whale buying
Whales increased net exposure by $5K as the probability on NVIDIA’s July 31 ranking more than quintupled in 24 hours.
Jul 17
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds plunge 61.9pp as whale flow diverges
Price on Max Martin attending Taylor Swift's wedding dropped sharply despite $11K whale net buys, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 17
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Odds Jump 17.5pp to 54.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in the probability that Houthis will successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026.
Jul 17
Breaking
“0 ships transit Hormuz by July 31?” YES price jumps 15.8 pp to 22.8% with whale backing
The market’s sharp rise from 7.0% to 22.8% in 24 hours is confirmed by $7K net whale buying, signaling stronger conviction on the outcome.
Jul 17
Breaking
Moonshot AI Model Market Jumps 31.9pp to 51.5% on Whale Buying
Whale net inflows of $6K supported a sharp rise in odds for Moonshot leading Chinese AI by July 2026.
Jul 17
Breaking
NVIDIA Largest Company Odds Drop 37pp Despite $44K Whale Buy Flow
Whales bought $44K into YES as market price for NVIDIA’s top market cap status fell sharply from 84.5% to 47.5%.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 38.5 pp to 95.5% on Polymarket amid whale buying
Whale net flow of $8K into YES accompanied a sharp 24-hour price rise in the Iran-Gulf State military action market.
Jul 17
Breaking
Bitcoin $67,500 July Odds Drop 19pp Despite Whale Activity Divergence
Bitcoin July $67,500 market on Polymarket saw YES contract price fall from 42.5% to 23.5% as whale flow diverged from the price move.
Jul 17