Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds drop 31.5pp despite whale buying
YES price for Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 extension fell from 76.5% to 45.0% as whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting signals in the market.
Jul 17
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 45.5 points to 80.5% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with price jump as contract volume hits $23K in 24 hours
Jul 17
Breaking
Apple’s odds to be largest company by July 31 jump 18.4 pp to 41.8% on Polymarket
Whale buying of $16K supported a sharp 24-hour rise in market odds on Apple's market cap status.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 48pp to 84% as whales add $14K to YES
Whale buying aligned with sharp 24-hour price rise from 36% to 84% on Polymarket’s Gulf State conflict question.
Jul 17
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds plunge 22.9 pp as whale flow diverges
Max Martin's chance of attending Taylor Swift's wedding dropped sharply despite whales increasing YES bets by $5K.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 38.5 Points as Whales Back YES
Polymarket's contract on Iran attacking a Gulf State on July 15 jumps to 78.5% with $14K whale net buys confirming the rapid price shift.
Jul 17
Breaking
Claude Opus July 2026 release odds surge 28.5 points as whale bets match price move
Polymarket’s “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?” market jumps from 36.5% to 65.0% with $13K volume and aligned whale flow.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 43pp to 97.5% as whales buy $19K
Whale buying aligned with a sharp jump in market odds, signaling strong conviction on Polymarket’s Iran military action question.
Jul 17
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds drop 18pp despite $6K whale buying
Whales increased YES bets by $6K even as market probability for Max Martin attending Taylor Swift’s wedding fell sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 17
Breaking
Claude Opus release odds jump 29pp to 74.5% with whale support
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 29.0 percentage point rise in yes price for Claude Opus model release by July 24, 2026.
Jul 17