The market on whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19 saw a sharp decline in its YES price, dropping 31.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 76.5% to 45.0%.
This dramatic repricing occurred alongside a notable divergence between whale activity and price movement. While the YES price fell significantly, whale flow did not follow the same trend, indicating net buying pressure into YES positions despite the price decline. This disconnect points to contrasting interpretations between large traders and the broader market.
Polymarket recorded $45K in volume over the same period, reflecting active participant engagement amid the shifting odds. The divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while the market as a whole is lowering expectations for the extension, some large stakeholders remain positioned on the possibility of Anthropic continuing paid-plan access.
The combined picture of a steep drop in price paired with whale buying pressure signals a contested outlook on this event, with uncertainty persisting about the likelihood of an extension before the July 19 deadline.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2898504 |
| 24h price change | +31.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 45.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 76.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $45K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.