Breaking
AI model hitting 1550 Math Arena Score by 2026 odds jump 16pp to 47.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $3K net into YES contracts as market price rose sharply, though Polydata's mid-price remains far higher at 87%.
Jul 9
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 20.5pp Despite Whale Bets
Polymarket's 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?' market slashed YES price from 22.5% to 2.0%, even as whale flow opposed the move.
Jul 9
Breaking
Bitcoin $60K July dip odds drop 17.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket's 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?' market saw YES price fall from 70.0% to 52.5% despite whale activity moving against the trend.
Jul 9
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” YES price falls 19.5 pp despite $3K whale buys
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 24-hour price drop, signaling mixed conviction in the market’s outlook.
Jul 9
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro July 17, 2026 Release Odds Drop 24.1pp to 7.2% on Polymarket
Whale buying diverged from sharp price decline, signaling mixed sentiment ahead of the July 17 release date.
Jul 9
Breaking
Odds for Iran MOU withdrawal by July 10 plunge 26.1 pp to 1.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading diverged sharply from the steep drop in YES contract price, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 9
Whales
$785K Bet Against Consensus on Sergio Pérez as 2026 F1 Champion
A single wallet wagered $785K on a longshot outcome priced at 0.15%, joining strong whale buying in the F1 Drivers' Champion market.
Jul 9
Breaking
Trump UFO declassification odds drop 16pp despite $3K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 16 percentage point decline in the YES price for Trump UFO files market.
Jul 9
Whales
$478K Net Whale Flow Into YES on Switzerland World Cup Win, Market Implies 2.1%
Whales are betting heavily on Switzerland to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup despite a low market price of 2.1%.
Jul 9
Whales
$478K Whale Bet Bucks 2.1% Market Odds on Switzerland 2026 World Cup Win
A high-accuracy trader places a large wager against consensus on Switzerland’s longshot World Cup bid amid strong whale buying.
Jul 9