Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 65pp despite whale bets on YES
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market saw YES price collapse from 82.0% to 17.0% even as whales increased YES exposure.
Jul 10
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Citigroup Q2 credit loss provision odds jump 25pp to 79.5% on Polymarket
Whales increased exposure by $925, moving in step with the sharp rise in YES contract price.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” YES price surges 50.4 pp to 99.0%
Whale activity matched the sharp odds shift as the market priced near certainty on UFO file release by mid-July.
Jul 10
Breaking
Citigroup Q2 Credit Loss Provision Odds Jump 28.5 Points to 83%
Whale activity aligned with the surge, adding $925 net into YES contracts amid a $5K 24-hour volume.
Jul 10
Breaking
Ethereum $1,700 July Dip Odds Drop 16.5pp Despite Whale Selling
Polymarket's 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?' contract saw a sharp 16.5 percentage point decline in YES price, diverging from whale flow that moved against the price shift.
Jul 10
Breaking
Citigroup Q2 credit loss provision odds jump 26.5 pp to 77% on Polymarket
Whales added $969 net to YES contracts as market consensus shifted sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds fall 20.5 points amid whale-price flow split
Polymarket’s YES price on McConnell stepping down dropped from 68.5% to 48.0% while whales added $12K net to YES, diverging from the price move.
Jul 10
Whales
Whales add $1.14M to France World Cup 2026 YES as market prices it at 38.6%
Despite a 38.6% market price, whales have pushed a net $1.14M into YES on France winning the 2026 World Cup over 24 hours.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” YES jumps 35pp to 83% on aligned whale flow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability sharply higher to 83%, reflecting growing confidence in imminent disclosure.
Jul 10
Breaking
French 2026 United Left primary cancellation odds jump 22pp to 71.5% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing the market from near even to a strong majority for cancellation.
Jul 10