Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack contract YES price plunges 22pp to 1.5% despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from a sharp market sell-off as Polymarket traders slashed odds on Iran abstaining from attacks by Sunday.
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 31pp to 63.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $26K into YES as the contract nearly doubled in price within 24 hours, signaling a sharp shift in market sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 15pp to 30.5% despite $47K whale bets
Whale trading flow diverged from price action as market odds fell sharply on Polymarket in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? YES price drops 16pp despite $40K whale inflow
Whales bought $40K into YES as Polymarket’s Breaking price plunged from 58.5% to 42.5%, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 17.5 Points in 24 Hours
Despite a sharp fall in the YES price, whale activity diverged by not supporting the move on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 92pp to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $11K net buying as the market price jumped from 2.5% to 94.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Whales
$198K Whale Bets on Norway to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Odds
Large investors direct $198K net into Norway YES while market prices chance at 0.05%, highlighting a divergence between whale flow and crowd consensus.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price jumps 85.0 pp to 87.2% on Iran shipping attack market
Whales contributed $11K net buying as Polymarket sharply repriced odds for July 12 event
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 25.2 pp despite whale buying
Whale bets on Iran military action rose while market prices sharply dropped from 53.5% to 28.3% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 88.8 pp to 91.0% as whales back YES
Whale activity and a rapid price surge aligned as the market repriced the chance of an Iranian attack on shipping on July 12.
Jul 12