Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 41pp to 78% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 41.0 percentage point rise in YES price to 78.0%, signaling growing confidence in a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 42.4 points despite $17K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 24-hour drop in Polymarket odds on Iran's July 13 shipping attack.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 52.9pp to 85.7% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp price jump as the market re-assesses the likelihood of Iran striking on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 15pp in 24h
Whale trading diverges sharply from price, signaling conflicting views on maritime traffic odds by July 2026
Jul 13
Breaking
Houthis shipping attack odds jump 23pp to 37.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moved in sync as market reassessed risk of Houthis targeting shipping by July 31, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
YES price on Strait of Hormuz transit limit jumps 29.1pp to 71.7% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s market on July 31 transit averages sees aligned whale bets and price surge, reflecting sharply increased odds.
Jul 13
Breaking
Fed rate hold odds drop 16pp to 63.5% as whale buying diverges from price move
Polymarket's 'no change in Fed rates after July 2026' market saw a sharp price fall despite nearly $900K whale inflows into YES contracts
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? YES price jumps 54.5 pp to 90.0%
Polymarket sees a sharp rise in odds as whale bets align with the surge, pushing YES price from 35.4% to 90.0%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Sara Rodriguez’s 2026 Wisconsin Governor primary odds drop 16.5 pp despite $13K whale buys
Whales bought $16K into YES contracts even as the market price fell from 35.0% to 18.5% over 24 hours, signaling a split between price action and whale flow.
Jul 13
Breaking
Polymarket Odds for Israel-Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting by July 14 Jump 45pp to 82.5%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in market confidence for a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon by mid-2026.
Jul 13