Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 28.6 points to 95.1% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in market confidence for a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, plunge 59.8 pp on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged from price, with $30K net flow into YES while odds dropped sharply.
Jul 14
Whales
$408K Buy on Argentina at 17.6% Implied Chance Defies World Cup Market Consensus
Wallet @TB14 backs Argentina with a large wager against the market’s 17.6% probability, joining broader whale buying in a $134M volume market.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 37.4 points to 100% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in odds on Iran’s Gulf State military action market amid $771K volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Ethereum $1,900 July YES Contract Jumps 39.5 Points on Polymarket
Whale buying matched the sharp 24-hour rise from 49.5% to 89.0% in YES price, signaling strong conviction.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 39.1pp to 99.1% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp market surge, pushing the probability of a meeting by July 14, 2026, close to certainty.
Jul 14
Breaking
Polymarket YES price for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz plunges 64.4 pp in 24h
Price drop contrasts with $30K whale net inflow, signaling conflicting market signals on transit likelihood.
Jul 14
Whales
Whales Add $248K Net to YES on England Winning 2026 World Cup at 21.4% Price
Despite a market-implied probability of 21.4%, whales have pushed $248K net into YES positions over the past 24 hours on England's 2026 World Cup win.
Jul 14
Breaking
‘Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?’ YES jumps 49.7 points on aligned whale buying
Whales pushed $3K net into YES as the contract’s probability more than doubled to 94.7% in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES price jumps 86.3 pp to 95.1% amid whale buying
Whales supported a massive 24-hour surge in odds, pushing the YES contract from 8.8% to 95.1% on Polymarket.
Jul 14