Breaking
US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? YES price plunges 43.2 pp amid whale buying divergence
Whale activity diverged sharply from a 43.2 pp drop in YES price, highlighting conflicting signals in the Polymarket market.
Jul 14
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Credible public sale market jumps 44pp to 85.5% with $21K whale inflow
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price surge from 41.5% to 85.5%, signaling strong conviction in over $30M committed.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?” YES price jumps 61.4 pp to 72.9%
Whale activity matched a sharp 24-hour rise in odds, pushing the market from 11.5% to 72.9% probability
Jul 14
Whales
Whales Net $560K Into Spain Win Market Despite 22.7% Price
Large traders increase exposure to Spain in 2026 World Cup market while overall odds remain steady.
Jul 14
Breaking
Bitcoin $65K July Market Surges 37pp to 96% on Whale Backing
Whales aligned with the price jump, adding $89K net into YES as odds rose sharply from 59% to 96%.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?” YES price jumps 56.5 pp to 68.0%
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in odds, pushing the market from 11.5% to 68.0% in 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?” YES Price Drops 50.6pp Despite $79K Whale Inflow
The market's YES contract plunged from 58.3% to 7.6% in 24 hours, while whales increased bets on the outcome, signaling a split between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israeli parliament dissolution odds surge 63.6 pp to 68.1% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price jump on the July 16 dissolution question, pushing confidence higher.
Jul 14
Breaking
“US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” YES price drops 37pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s odds for US imposing Hormuz fees plunge from 48.0% to 11.0%, while whale activity contradicts the sharp price fall.
Jul 14
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Hormuz ship transit plunges 53.2 pp despite $31K whale buying
Sharp 24-hour drop in YES price clashes with whale flow, revealing market uncertainty on Strait of Hormuz transit
Jul 14