Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU odds drop 18pp to 15.5% despite $201K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 18 percentage point decline in Polymarket’s odds for Iran exiting negotiations by July 31.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
YES price on Hormuz transit drops 19.9pp as whale flow diverges
The market for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales increasing YES bets.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?” YES jumps 23.8 pp to 33.4%
Whales boosted their exposure with $4K net into YES, matching the sharp rise in market odds over 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price falls 41.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged from price drop as YES contracts plunged from 55.0% to 13.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 July Contract Rises 20pp as Whales Back the Move
The 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?' market jumped from 48.5% to 68.5%, supported by $13K whale net inflows over 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds drop 22.6 pp to 63.6% despite $2K whale buy-in
Whale activity diverged from sharp 24-hour price decline, signaling mixed signals on Alibaba's AI prospects.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Home Secretary Market YES Price Plunges 34.5 Points Amid Whale Buying Divergence
Despite a sharp 34.5 percentage point drop in the YES price, whales increased their net bets by $7K, signaling conflicting signals on the UK Home Secretary question.
Jul 15
Breaking
Spain’s odds to be top UEFA nation at World Cup jump 48.5 points to 79.0%
Whales backed the surge with $2K net flow into YES, aligning with a sharp market repricing on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Whales
Whale buys $291K on Spain to win 2026 World Cup at 58.1% market probability
A single wallet moved $476K today on Spain’s 2026 World Cup win market, aligning with broader whale buying despite the market’s moderate implied chance.
Jul 15
Breaking
John Healey Defence Secretary Odds Drop 29.5pp Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket's contract for Healey as UK Defence Secretary fell sharply in 24 hours even as whale flow favored YES.
Jul 15