Breaking
Anthropic IPO Odds Jump 19pp to 43% Backed by $3K Whale Bets
Whales and market action converged as Polymarket’s price for an Anthropic IPO by October 2026 climbed sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU talks odds plunge 23.1 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s ‘Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?’ market saw YES price drop sharply despite whale bets moving against the trend.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price drops 33.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s contract on the UK Home Secretary role saw YES price fall sharply despite whales increasing their YES exposure, signaling mixed market signals.
Jul 15
Breaking
YES price on Mahmood as UK Chancellor jumps 38.2pp to 85.4% with $39K whale inflow
Shabana Mahmood’s chances for UK Chancellor in 2026 surged sharply alongside aligned whale buying activity.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? odds fell 62pp in 24h on Polymarket
YES price plunged from 90.5% to 28.5% while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU odds drop 23pp despite whale bets rising
Polymarket’s “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?” market saw a sharp 23.0 pp decline in YES price while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting signals in sentiment.
Jul 15
Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 SD Governor GOP Primary Odds Drop 33.5 Points Despite $4K Whale Buys
Whale trading and price action diverged sharply as the YES price plunged from 40.5% to 7.0% in 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
“No next UK Home Secretary in 2026?” YES price plunges 36.5 points amid whale-buy sell split
Polymarket’s contract on the absence of a UK Home Secretary in 2026 dropped sharply despite whales adding $7K net to YES positions, signaling a divergence between price action and large trader flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
Teresa Ruiz’s Nomination Odds Surge 16pp to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 16.0pp rise in the probability that Teresa Ruiz will secure the Arizona Democratic nomination for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor Market Jumps 25.6pp as Whales Back YES with $40K
The market on Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 surged from 59.7% to 85.3%, driven by aligned whale buying and a spike in volume.
Jul 15