PMX Index
Polydata PMX composite slips to 39.1 as crypto activity hits 43-day high
The proprietary PMX index shows overall market mood below neutral, driven by weak sentiment despite peak crypto activity.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball 2026 YES price jumps 46.1 pp to 90.3% as whales buy $85K
Whale activity aligned with a sharp increase in odds for Messi winning the 2026 Golden Ball, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 15
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball odds soar 45.5 points to 89.9% on Polymarket with $81K whale inflow
Whales and overall market activity pushed the probability sharply higher, doubling the implied chance in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Whales
$576K Bet Against Consensus on John Fetterman’s 2028 Democratic Nomination
A wallet with 98.2% accuracy backs a longshot outcome priced at 0.55% in a $23.70M market.
Jul 15
Whales
$804K bet defies 0.05% odds on England to win 2026 World Cup
Top-20 trader @BreakTheBank places $1.34M in three large bets including $804K against market consensus on England’s 2026 World Cup chances
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor market jumps 35.9 pp to 87.3% with $41K whale inflow
Whales and price moved in sync as optimism surged sharply on Mahmood’s chances for UK Chancellor in 2026.
Jul 15
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball odds jump 43.7 pp to 89.4% as whales back YES with $58K net flow
Lionel Messi’s chances at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball surged sharply alongside strong whale buying aligned with the price move.
Jul 15
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball Market Doubles to 91% with $54K Whale Inflow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability sharply higher by 45.1 percentage points in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
England Semifinal Elimination Odds Surge 54.4 Points to 100% on Polymarket
A $13K whale net inflow backed the sharp 24-hour rise in the probability that England will exit in the World Cup semifinals.
Jul 15
Breaking
England Semifinal Exit Odds Surge 54.4pp to 100% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices moved in tandem, pushing the probability of England's elimination in the World Cup semifinals to certainty.
Jul 15