Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 South Dakota GOP Primary Odds Drop 30pp Despite $4K Whale Bet
Whales increased YES positions by $4K while the market price for Toby Doeden to win plunged from 40.0% to 10.0%.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
UK Foreign Secretary Market YES Price Drops 37pp Despite $4K Whale Buying
Whales bought $4K into the YES side even as its probability plunged from 57.5% to 20.5% in 24 hours, signaling a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
Nike World Cup shirt contract tumbles 22.9 pp as whale flow diverges from price
The market price for Nike as 2026 World Cup shirt maker dropped from 23.0% to 0.05%, while whales increased their YES bets by $3K.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood’s Odds Surge 28.7pp to 81.5% on Polymarket Amid Whale Buying
Whale activity and price movement aligned as confidence in Mahmood’s 2026 Chancellor bid surged sharply in one day.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 23pp Despite $29K Whale Bets
Whales bought $42K in YES shares even as the market slashed the probability from 35.5% to 12.5%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Messi’s Golden Ball Odds Surge 46.1pp to 89.6% Amid $87K Whale Buying
Whale activity and a sharp price jump pushed the market on Messi winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Europe’s chances of winning 2026 World Cup drop 23pp as whales diverge
Europe's YES price on the 2026 FIFA World Cup fell sharply despite $168K whale buying, showing a split between price moves and whale flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 63 points amid diverging whale flow
Polymarket's 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?' market saw a sharp 24.5% YES price despite whales moving against the price shift.
Jul 15
Markets
LeBron James 2028 US Presidential Election Market Hits $54.10M in Volume at 0.35% Yes Price
Newly launched prediction market on LeBron James’ 2028 presidential bid draws $54.10M in volume with a 0.35% chance priced in.
Jul 15
Whales
Whales Buy $362K in LeBron James 2028 US President Market Despite 0.35% Price
Large traders are heavily accumulating YES on LeBron James winning the 2028 US Presidential Election while the market price remains near zero.
Jul 15