The market question “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?” saw its yes contract surge 29.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from 45.5% to 74.5%.
This sizeable repricing was accompanied by whale activity that aligned with the upward move. Over the same period, whales contributed a net $1K into yes positions, with $2K in buy volume and $1K in sell volume, spread across 26 unique whale traders. This flow suggests that larger traders supported the price rally rather than countering it.
Overall, the Polymarket 24-hour volume for this contract reached $7K, out of a lifetime market volume of $15K, with 86 unique traders participating since inception. The alignment of whale flow with the price increase signals growing conviction among significant market participants that the Claude Opus model will be released by the specified date.
This combined surge in price and whale buying activity underscores a notable shift in market sentiment toward a higher likelihood of the event occurring by July 24, 2026.
| Market | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2925816 |
| 24h price change | +29.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 74.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 74.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $2K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 26 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 86 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.