The market on whether SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 17 saw a dramatic reversal, with the YES contract price plunging 95.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, dropping from 95.5% to 0.05%. This sharp decline indicates a near-complete loss of confidence in the launch happening on schedule.
Despite this steep drop in price, whale activity diverged from the price move. Large traders collectively net bought $21K worth of YES contracts over the same period, with $37K in buy volume against $16K in sell volume across 62 unique whales. This divergence between whale flow and the falling price suggests that while the broader market rapidly repriced the likelihood of the launch, whales maintained or increased their exposure to the YES outcome.
The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question was $45K, close to the lifetime market volume of $54K, highlighting a recent surge in trading interest. A total of 172 unique traders have participated in this market since inception.
The combined price and flow picture signals significant uncertainty and repositioning among large traders and the broader market regarding SpaceX’s launch prospects.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2911983 |
| 24h price change | +95.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.05% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 0.05% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $21K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $37K / $16K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 62 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $45K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 172 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.