The market on whether Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10 saw a sharp decline in its YES contract price, falling 20.5 percentage points from 22.5% to 2.0% over the past 24 hours. This significant drop reflects a rapid repricing of the likelihood of Iran pulling out of the talks as the deadline approaches.
Interestingly, this sharp decrease in the market-implied probability occurred despite whale activity diverging from the price movement. Large traders continued to place net bets into YES contracts rather than pulling back, indicating a disconnect between whale flow and the broader market sentiment. Total volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $128K in the same period.
The divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while the general market is moving strongly to discount the chance of Iran withdrawing from the negotiations, influential traders maintain a more optimistic stance. This split highlights differing interpretations or information sets among market participants ahead of the July 10 deadline.
Overall, the combination of a steep drop in the YES price and opposing whale activity points to a contested outlook on this geopolitical event, with the market sharply lowering expectations for withdrawal but some large players holding a contrary view.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849065 |
| 24h price change | +20.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 2.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $128K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.