Breaking
Israel-Iran ceasefire odds jump 28 points to 61.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in market confidence that the ceasefire will last through July 31.
Jul 18
#%smarket-move
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 13 stories.
Breaking
NYC July precipitation odds plunge 44.5 points despite $3K whale buy-in
Polymarket's market on NYC July rainfall flips from 59% to 14.5% YES probability while whales add $3K net to YES contracts.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 39.5 points despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract fell sharply even as whales increased YES exposure, signaling diverging market views.
Jul 16
Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor Market Sees 53.5pp Slide to 15% Amid Whale Buying Divergence
Whales increased YES exposure by $26K even as Polymarket's price for Ed Miliband as Chancellor plunged from 68.5% to 15%.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?” YES price jumps 61.4 pp to 72.9%
Whale activity matched a sharp 24-hour rise in odds, pushing the market from 11.5% to 72.9% probability
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 23pp to 88.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 23-point jump in the YES price, signaling strong conviction in a diplomatic breakthrough.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 53pp to 89.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 53.0pp rise in the 'Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?' market, underscoring growing confidence in the event.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 58pp to 77% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing odds for a diplomatic meeting up from 19% to 77% in 24 hours
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf State military action odds surge 84pp to 93.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with sharp price jump, pushing odds from 9.5% to 93.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? YES price jumps 19.5 pp
Whale activity supported a sharp 24-hour rise in the market's probability to 66.0%.
Jul 12