Polymarket’s weather vertical sees $244.72M traded across 39 active city markets, with London capturing the largest share at $62.13M. London’s forecast high ranges narrowly from 34°C to 35°C, reflecting a tight consensus in a $62.13M market.
Seattle stands out as the most contested weather forecast today, with sources disagreeing on the high temperature by 9.6°F — from 69.9°F to 79.5°F — in a $7.42M market. This wide spread contrasts with yesterday’s actual high of 74°F, highlighting a volatile outlook that traders are actively pricing. The large forecast gap indicates unsettled expectations, making Seattle’s market a focal point for weather prediction activity.
Other cities show varied market sizes and forecast confidence. New York City has the second-largest volume at $55.13M, with a 7.8°F spread on its forecast high between 81.4°F and 89.2°F. Seoul’s $19.70M market features a tight 0.9°C range from 24.1°C to 25°C, indicating strong agreement among forecasters. In the southern hemisphere, Buenos Aires has a moderate $7.37M volume but a wider spread of 3.7°C, from 13°C to 16.7°C. Wellington’s $7.42M market shows the narrowest forecast range at 0.2°C, between 10°C and 10.2°C.
The daily weather markets reflect where prediction uncertainty is highest and where traders allocate capital accordingly. The Seattle market’s broad temperature range and active trading volume reveal a key area of forecast divergence amid the global slate of weather predictions.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | $62.13M | 34°C–35°C | 1°C |
| New York City | $55.13M | 81.4°F–89.2°F | 7.8°F |
| Seoul | $19.70M | 24.1°C–25°C | 0.9°C |
| Atlanta | $9.38M | 91°F–93°F | 2°F |
| Dallas | $9.34M | 97.8°F–104.9°F | 7.1°F |
| Ankara | $7.42M | 29°C–31°C | 2°C |
| Wellington | $7.42M | 10°C–10.2°C | 0.2°C |
| Seattle | $7.42M | 69.9°F–79.5°F | 9.6°F |
| Buenos Aires | $7.37M | 13°C–16.7°C | 3.7°C |
| Toronto | $7.11M | 29°C–34.7°C | 5.7°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.