Tokyo shows the widest disagreement among forecast sources today, with predicted highs ranging from 28.6°C to 32°C, a 3.4°C spread. This divergence stands out in a vertical where 52 city markets collectively traded $161K in the last 24 hours. Tokyo’s $45K flow ranks just behind Hong Kong, which leads all cities with $48K in daily volume.
Yesterday, Tokyo’s actual high hit 29°C, sitting near the lower edge of today’s forecast range. Hong Kong’s forecast high spans a narrower 1.7°C gap from 29.5°C to 31.2°C, accompanied by its $48K volume, the deepest single-city flow in the vertical. Shanghai rounds out the geographic snapshot with $27K in 24-hour volume and a forecast spread of 1.4°C, between 34.6°C and 36°C.
The weather vertical’s all-time trading depth now exceeds $8.99B, reflecting sustained interest in city-specific outcomes. Each city settles on a definitive high temperature the same day, making the spread among forecast sources the key focus for traders and analysts. Tokyo’s 3.4°C range today underscores how uncertainty can drive volume and engagement in the market.
These daily variations in forecast consensus offer a real-time measure of weather prediction confidence and market activity across global cities.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong | $48K | 29.5°C–31.2°C | 1.7°C |
| Tokyo | $45K | 28.6°C–32°C | 3.4°C |
| Shanghai | $27K | 34.6°C–36°C | 1.4°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.