The market “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES price jump 69.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, soaring from approximately 30.5% to 100.0% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing was matched by whale activity, with net inflows of $333K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume reached $587K, outpacing $254K in sell volume across 311 unique large traders.
Despite the Polymarket YES price hitting 100.0%, the Polydata on-chain mid-price stood substantially lower at 25.5%, indicating a notable divergence between Polymarket’s live quote and broader on-chain valuation. The 24-hour trading volume for this market totaled $465K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $1.67M and involving 1,314 unique traders to date.
The alignment between whale flow and the sharp price increase suggests that major traders are reinforcing the market’s sudden consensus that a US blockade announcement is imminent. The combined surge in price and whale buying pressure marks a decisive shift in market sentiment and conviction on this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +69.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 100.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 30.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $333K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $587K / $254K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 311 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $465K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,314 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.