The probability that the US will reissue oil sanction relief for Iran by July 31 rose sharply by 15.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 22.5% to 37.5%. This sizable repricing reflects a notable change in market sentiment on the question.
Supporting the price move, whale activity aligned with the tape, indicating that large traders increased their exposure to the YES side rather than betting against it. The 24-hour trading volume on this contract reached $9K, a modest but meaningful amount that helped facilitate the price shift.
Such a coordinated move between price and whale flow signals growing conviction among key market participants that the US is increasingly likely to reissue the sanction relief within the specified timeframe. This dynamic suggests that the market’s reassessment is grounded in fresh information or changing expectations, rather than isolated retail speculation.
Overall, the combination of a 15.0 pp increase in implied probability and whale-aligned flow points to a material recalibration of the contract’s outlook, highlighting the evolving nature of political and economic factors influencing US-Iran oil sanctions.
| Market | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849355 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 37.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.