The probability that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 13 climbed sharply by 32.2 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 26.3% to 58.6% on Polymarket. This notable repricing reflects a significant shift in trader sentiment around the event.
Supporting this move, whale activity aligned with the price increase, with 42 unique whales accounting for a net $4K inflow into YES contracts over the day. Whale buy volume stood at $10K, outpacing $5K in sells, indicating sustained buying pressure behind the odds shift. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $8K, suggesting that whales were responsible for a substantial portion of trading during the move.
Since inception, the market has seen $16K in total volume with 110 unique traders participating, underscoring continued interest in the geopolitical question. The combined data of a 32.2 percentage point jump in YES price and supportive whale flow signals a pronounced reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will take hostile action against shipping on July 13.
This coordinated price and whale flow movement suggests that large traders and the broader market are converging on a higher probability scenario, reflecting new information or changing risk perceptions within the last day.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +32.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 58.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 26.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 42 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 110 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.