The market for “US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” saw its YES contract price climb sharply by 16.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 24.5% to 40.5%, according to the latest Polymarket Breaking feed on July 12, 2026. This significant repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment regarding the likelihood of sanction relief being granted within the specified timeframe.
Importantly, whale trading activity aligned with this price move, indicating that large investors were buying into the YES outcome as the odds increased. The $10K volume traded in the last 24 hours supports this coordinated movement between price and whale flow, suggesting conviction behind the shift.
This combined price and flow dynamic signals increased confidence among both retail and institutional participants that the US will reissue sanction relief on Iranian oil by the end of July. The synchronized rise in YES prices and whale buying points to a market consensus forming around this scenario, reflecting evolving geopolitical developments or emerging information that has influenced trader expectations.
Overall, the 16.0 pp jump in probability and the accompanying whale support mark a substantial update in the market’s outlook on US-Iran oil sanctions, highlighting how on-chain data captures rapid changes in consensus driven by large-scale trading behavior.
| Market | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849355 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 24.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.