The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 surged 23.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 15.5% to 38.5% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing was backed by significant whale activity, with $193K net inflow into YES contracts and whale buy volume totaling $374K against $181K in sells. A total of 323 unique whales participated in this flow, aligning closely with the market’s upward price movement.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market was $340K, part of a lifetime volume of $1.03M traded by 1,023 unique traders. Notably, there is a divergence between the Polymarket YES price at 38.5% and the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 25.5%, indicating some difference in pricing perspectives between market data sources.
The combined surge in price and whale buying suggests growing conviction among large traders that the US blockade announcement is increasingly likely before July 31. The alignment of whale flow and price action underscores a coordinated market reassessment rather than isolated speculative moves.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 38.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 15.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $193K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $374K / $181K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 323 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $340K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,023 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.