The market for “US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?” saw a pronounced shift in odds over the past 24 hours, with the YES contract price falling 16.0 percentage points from an estimated 58.5% to 42.5% according to the Polymarket Breaking feed on July 12, 2026. This sizable downward move contrasts with significant whale activity, which flowed $40K net into YES, backed by $85K in whale buy volume against $45K in sells across 119 unique whale wallets.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume on this market reached $67K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $193K and involving 410 unique traders. Notably, the on-chain Polydata overview price diverges, showing a YES price of 57.5%, highlighting a discrepancy between the Breaking feed’s current odds and the broader market state.
This divergence between price and whale flow signals a complex dynamic: while the market price sharply repriced lower, whale investors increased their YES exposure rather than selling off. The combined data points to heightened uncertainty and contested valuations around the extension of the US-Iran negotiation period, reflecting a market in flux rather than consensus.
| Market | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2663611 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 42.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 58.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 57.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $40K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $85K / $45K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 119 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $67K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 410 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.