The probability that SpaceX’s Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 15 plunged by 17.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, dropping from an estimated 18.1% to just 0.60%.
This sudden repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment as traders sharply reduced their expectations for a timely launch. However, whale flow diverged from this price action, with large traders not increasing their bets against the YES outcome, signaling a disconnect between the tape and whale activity.
The market recorded $8K in volume during this repricing event, indicating moderate trading interest amid the uncertainty. The divergence between price moves and whale flow suggests that while retail or smaller traders pushed the odds down sharply, major participants remained on the sidelines or neutral.
This combination of a steep decline in implied probability and contrasting whale behavior points to a market grappling with new information or risk factors around the timing of Starship’s next flight test. The lack of whale confirmation tempers the price move’s conviction and highlights ongoing uncertainty about the launch timeline.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851471 |
| 24h price change | +17.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.60% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 18.1% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.