The Polymarket prediction market question “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw its YES contract price surge by 88.6 percentage points over 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 2.3% to 90.9% as of the latest snapshot on July 12, 2026.
This sharp repricing coincided with whale activity that aligned with the price move, as 78 unique whale traders contributed $18K in buy volume against $7K in sell volume, resulting in a net $11K inflow into YES positions. The overall 24-hour volume for this market was $21K, while lifetime volume stands at $28K, with 165 unique traders participating since inception.
The substantial increase in YES price, supported by significant whale buying, indicates a market consensus shift toward expecting Iran to successfully target shipping on the specified date. The alignment between large-scale trader flow and price action underscores the conviction behind this rapid adjustment in odds.
This combined price and whale flow pattern signals a strong re-evaluation of the event’s likelihood by Polymarket participants, reflecting updated information or sentiment that has dramatically increased the probability assigned to this outcome.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +88.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 90.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 78 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 165 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.