The market question “Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?” experienced a significant repricing, with the YES contract soaring 28.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 51.0% to 79.5% on Polymarket. This surge reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment about Anthropic’s prospects within the prediction market community.
Whale activity supported this price movement, with net inflows of $5K into YES contracts out of $9K whale buy volume and $4K in sells across 48 unique whale traders. This alignment between whale net flow and price action suggests that large traders agreed with the bullish repricing, reinforcing the upward momentum in the contract’s implied probability.
Despite the sharp increase on Polymarket, a notable divergence exists when compared to Polydata’s on-chain mid-price, which stands at only 27.5%. The difference indicates either a lag in on-chain data updates or differing liquidity and trading dynamics between Polymarket’s centralized order book and on-chain pricing.
With total 24-hour market volume at $9K and lifetime volume reaching $87K among 406 unique traders, the market shows active participation and interest. The combined price and whale flow trends signal increased confidence in Anthropic’s chances of leading in Math AI by mid-2026, reflecting a strong consensus shift among large and retail traders alike.
| Market | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2431051 |
| 24h price change | +28.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 79.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 27.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 48 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 406 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.