Paris weather forecasts show the greatest disagreement among sources, with predicted highs ranging from 31°C to 33.9°C, a 2.9°C spread. This divergence stands out in the weather vertical, where total 24-hour trading volume reached $295K across 52 active city markets. Paris alone accounted for $33K of that volume.
Yesterday’s actual high in Paris was 31°C, aligning with the lower end of today’s forecast spread. This contrast highlights ongoing uncertainty in temperature projections for the city.
Seoul dominated trading activity with $120K in 24-hour volume, reflecting its deep market liquidity and forecast range of 25.1°C to 27°C, a narrower 1.9°C gap. Munich and Wellington also contributed significant flows, with $32K and $26K respectively. Munich’s forecast range spans 27.7°C to 30°C (2.3°C spread), while Wellington’s spreads 13°C to 15°C (2°C).
Overall, the weather vertical has amassed $8.99B in lifetime volume, underscoring sustained trader interest in multi-source forecasts. The wide forecast spread in Paris combined with active trading volumes suggests markets are closely watching this city’s temperature outcome amid differing models. Such forecast disagreements create richer trading opportunities, as market participants weigh competing predictions against actual weather results.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul | $120K | 25.1°C–27°C | 1.9°C |
| Paris | $33K | 31°C–33.9°C | 2.9°C |
| Munich | $32K | 27.7°C–30°C | 2.3°C |
| Wellington | $26K | 13°C–15°C | 2°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.