Chengdu stands out as the most contested forecast in the weather vertical today, with sources disagreeing on the high temperature by 3.3°C, ranging from 33.7°C to 37°C. This uncertainty fuels active trading, with $41K changing hands in Chengdu’s market over the past 24 hours. Yesterday’s actual high in Chengdu was 31.9°C, providing a recent benchmark against which traders weigh the competing forecasts.
The overall 24-hour volume across all 52 active city markets reached $221K, reflecting robust engagement in weather prediction trading. Busan follows closely behind Chengdu with $40K in 24-hour volume and a forecast high spread of 2°C, ranging between 29°C and 31°C. Shenzhen also shows notable activity, with $26K traded and a forecast high spread of 3.2°C, from 31.8°C to 35°C.
These forecast differences highlight where market participants see the greatest uncertainty, creating opportunities for trading based on divergent weather predictions. The daily actual temperature readings will ultimately settle these markets, providing definitive outcomes after a day of active speculation. Chengdu’s 3.3°C forecast spread, the widest among all cities today, underscores the dynamic nature of weather markets and the value of precise forecasting in driving trading volume and market depth.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chengdu | $41K | 33.7°C–37°C | 3.3°C |
| Busan | $40K | 29°C–31°C | 2°C |
| Shenzhen | $26K | 31.8°C–35°C | 3.2°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.