A wallet identified as 0x5fae…78f1 sold $2.65M on the “Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” market, where the outcome’s implied probability stood at 0.25% at the time of the trade. This is the largest single trade on Polymarket in the last 24 hours and part of a total $3.65M in large trades by the same wallet today across the World Cup Winner event, including additional sales of $315K, $256K, and $150K on the USA winning the tournament.
The wallet has a lifetime volume of $3.75M over 588 trades spanning 4 markets, indicating an experienced participant. The World Cup Winner event encompasses 50 markets with a lifetime volume of $3.65B and 136,715 traders. The event’s single largest trader accounts for 6.2% of its volume, while the biggest winner and loser to date hold estimated PnL of $46.74M and -$213.17M respectively.
In contrast to this wallet’s selling activity, the broader whale flow over the past 24 hours for this market showed $6.40M bought against $922K sold by 395 unique whales. This trade runs against the broader whale flow, highlighting a notable divergence in positioning on Egypt’s chances. The market closes in 14 days, keeping the window open for further shifts in sentiment.
This large sale at a low market-implied probability signals significant capital moving against the possibility of Egypt winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, standing out amid predominantly bullish whale activity on the market.
| Direction | SELL |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0x5fae6030eee40aecb86dd9624460c13a8a8778f1 |
| Amount | $2.65M |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-06T18:27:38Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.