The Polymarket contract “US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” saw its YES price climb 23.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 23.0% to 46.0% as of July 13, 2026. This sizable repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment regarding the likelihood of the US government reinstating sanction relief on Iranian oil before the end of July.
Supporting this price move, whale trading activity aligned with the upward momentum, confirming rather than contradicting the market’s adjustment. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $9K, signaling moderate engagement from participants amid the price change.
This synchronized movement between large traders and price suggests growing conviction behind the increased probability that the US will reissue sanction relief on Iranian oil by the specified date. The combined price and flow data highlight a clear market reassessment of this geopolitical event’s prospects within a short timeframe.
| Market | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849355 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 46.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.