The Polymarket prediction contract “US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” saw its YES price climb 18.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 23.0% to 41.0% as of July 13, 2026. This significant repricing reflects a sudden surge in market confidence that the US will extend sanction relief on Iranian oil by the end of July.
Trading volume over the same period reached $9K, indicating active engagement among participants. Notably, whale activity aligned with the price move, with large bets flowing into the YES side, reinforcing the upward momentum. This alignment suggests that informed or high-stakes traders are supporting the increasing probability implied by the price.
The coordinated rise in price and whale flow points to a strengthening conviction in this outcome within the Polymarket ecosystem.
Overall, the combined price action and whale participation indicate a clear shift in market sentiment, highlighting growing belief in the likelihood of US reissuance of sanction relief by the specified deadline.
| Market | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849355 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 41.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.