The market asking whether Alibaba will have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026 saw its YES contract surge 23.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 46.0% to 69.4%. This significant revaluation reflects a sharp shift in trader expectations over the course of a day.
Whale activity closely tracked this price move, with 68 unique whales participating in the last 24 hours. They bought $12K worth of YES contracts while selling $5K, resulting in a net inflow of $7K into the YES side. This alignment between whale flow and the price increase suggests that large traders helped drive the market’s upward repricing.
Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question was $16K, a substantial portion of which came from whales. Since inception, the market has seen $93K in lifetime volume and 1,122 unique traders have participated, indicating solid liquidity and broad interest.
The combined surge in price and whale net buying signals growing confidence among large participants that Alibaba will lead in Chinese AI by the July 2026 deadline. The market’s rapid rise and supportive whale flow mark a notable shift in sentiment on this key technology question.
| Market | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2431240 |
| 24h price change | +23.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 69.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 46.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 69.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $12K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 68 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,122 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.