The Polymarket contract “US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” saw its YES price collapse by 39.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 49.5% to 10.5% as of the July 15 snapshot.
Despite this steep decline in the market-implied probability, whale flow diverged from the price action, creating a notable disconnect between large traders and the broader tape. While typical scenarios feature whale bets reinforcing price moves, here whales did not align with the sharp sell-off in YES contracts.
The market recorded $44K in 24-hour volume during this period, reflecting active trading interest amid the volatility. The divergence between whale activity and the dramatic re-pricing suggests uncertainty or disagreement among major players about the likelihood of the US imposing fees on the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2026.
This split between price direction and whale flow highlights tension within the market’s consensus, indicating that while general sentiment has turned strongly against the event occurring, large traders are either holding contrary views or positioning for a potential reversal. The combination of a plunging YES price and opposing whale bets makes this contract a focal point for watching how conviction and liquidity evolve in Polymarket’s geopolitical event space.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907324 |
| 24h price change | +39.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $44K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.