The market on whether the US will charge fees at Hormuz by December 31, 2026, saw its YES contract price plunge by 58.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours to 10.5%, down from an estimated 68.5% about a day earlier. This dramatic revaluation reflects a swift reassessment of this outcome’s likelihood by the broader Polymarket community.
Contrary to the steep decline in the YES price, whale activity diverged from the price movement, indicating large traders were not selling into the drop. Despite the 24-hour volume totaling $44K, whales did not align their trades with the falling odds, which points to a disconnect between retail sentiment and whale positioning.
The conflicting signals complicate the interpretation of the market’s current stance, revealing a split between retail-driven price shifts and large trader behavior.
Overall, this repricing and whale flow divergence highlight uncertainty and mixed conviction around this geopolitical event’s outcome on Polymarket.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907324 |
| 24h price change | +58.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $44K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.