The market for “US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” saw a dramatic 55.0 percentage point drop in its YES price over the past 24 hours, falling from 65.5% to 10.5% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment about the likelihood of the US imposing fees on Hormuz shipping by the end of 2026.
Despite the steep decline in the contract’s price, whale flow diverged from this movement, indicating large traders did not back the rapid sell-off. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $44K, suggesting notable trading activity amid the price adjustment.
This divergence between whale trading and the price move signals that while retail or smaller traders pushed the odds sharply lower, major participants held back or potentially positioned differently. Such a disconnect can highlight uncertainty or a reevaluation of information among different market segments.
Overall, the combined picture of a 55 percentage point plunge in the YES price alongside opposing whale flow suggests the market is undergoing a contentious reassessment of the probability that the US will charge Hormuz fees by the specified deadline, with large traders not fully endorsing the sudden drop.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907324 |
| 24h price change | +55.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 65.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $44K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.