The market question “US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?” saw its YES contract price collapse by 76.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling sharply from an estimated 83.0% to 6.6% as of July 14. Despite this steep drop in the price, the whale net flow diverged from the tape, with 81 unique whales collectively adding $32K into YES contracts. This flow included $42K in whale buy volume against $11K in sell volume, indicating a strong inclination among large traders to accumulate YES shares even as prices fell.
The 24-hour total volume on Polymarket for this contract was $51K, close to its lifetime market volume of $61K, underscoring the intensity of recent trading activity. There were 148 unique traders overall, suggesting broad participation beyond just whales. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 6.6% contrasts sharply with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 50.0%, highlighting a significant discrepancy between the market’s spot price and on-chain valuation.
This divergence between whale buying and collapsing prices signals a complex market dynamic. Whales appear to be betting against the prevailing price move, potentially anticipating a reversal or valuing information differently than the broader market.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907312 |
| 24h price change | +76.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 6.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 83.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 50.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $32K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $42K / $11K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 81 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $51K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 148 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.